"If I'm right in the thesis, what do I get?"
"But on the other hand, if I am wrong, what is the maximum I lose?"
With these two bezels on your head, it's easy to size and risk your bet.
The risk is huge and so we must scale very well the amount we have to lose, not to fall into the fallacy of trying to solve life with a single shot.
Only too many people are blinded by their optimism and fail to see the downside. It seems that when it comes to investing people are a lot more naive than in other aspects of life where they're able to think rationally and adapt to risk.