20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that...
I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck

I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome.
Careful. We may go much lower in the interim. Do not put yourself in a position where you are overinvested and feel you have to cut your losses. Only invest what you are prepared to hold firmly until well after next halvening.
If you want to be conservative, wait until we break the long term bear line. 2014 suggests we will break it around this price level in October 2019.