if japan did approve an ETF, i could see it influencing the SEC but probably over the course of several years. it wouldn't have an immediate effect.
I doubt it. Japan's ETF market hovers below $400 billion while the US ETF market is just shy of a being a $4 trillion market, which also explains why people are so desperately eager to see the VanEck ETF get an approval. There is no comparison. The SEC is in a league of its own, and it will ignore everything else till it thinks there is reason to allow an ETF to come through.
If even 1% of that capital flows into the VanEck ETF, it's ~$40 billion right there. I can see why the US isn't keen on approving this ETF. Heck, even 0.1% = ~$4 billion would be a great achievement already.
The SEC has a tough decision to make. Open the flood gates or not.
