Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)
Ok so Ive been invested in BTC since 2018 with an average cost basis of about 8k per coin. Sadly I dont see how we arent going to have at least one more huge move down well below 3k. I have orders to buy 3 more coins if we hit 2k. I dont want to sell rn but I am considering taking out a short position here. I believe in Bitcoin, but Im tired of so much losing in my first year 
Could a few members help me out and post their best argument for why we already saw the bottom, or their best argument of why we are gonna have another big move to new lows.
Thank you in advance.
Could a few members help me out and post their best argument for why we already saw the bottom, or their best argument of why we are gonna have another big move to new lows.
Thank you in advance.
Stop worrying about shorting the final gasp of the bear market and start thinking about when you are going to long the bottom and how you are going to do it. Much more profitable.
Exactamente, hairybeary.
Expressed another way is that selling (currently) is one level of risk that is exacerbated by shorting.
Regarding Falcon Lover's point about wanting to be convinced that the bottom is NOT already "in" seems to be a hope to convince him/her/itself of that. Largely, no one really knows if the bottom is "in" or not, and even though I still believe that we are currently "in" a bear market (which merely means that the odds of short-term price movements down are greater than they are for up), that "bear market assessment" does not conclusively establish that the BTC price is going to go lower than its current local low of $3,122.
If I am being charitable, maybe the odds are 60% that a new low could come, and I am quite reluctant to even consider the odds to be that high. In other words, betting more than 60% of your holdings on a new low coming seems like a gamble that is against the odds.