Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Brexit we're going to know the end of the story.
by
clrpod
on 13/01/2019, 11:27:58 UTC
Next week (Tuesday?) we're going to finally know the end of the story.
In any case, if UK and EU do not reach an agreement before the end of the month, the UK will be forced to leave the European Union because of the Treaty(ies) of the European Union. (hard brexit).

What I wonder is

- Is The UK ready: not only economically (what will be the cost and most important who will pay!) but I feel like there is nothing prepared for. For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK. It looks like a mess already, even 2 ministers resigned

- What about Ireland/North and Scotland?, they should take this opportunity to ask for their independence

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)




I suspect that the brexit deal will not pass and shortly after there will be a motion of no confidence followed by a new election. In that election we'll see parties split with many wanting to offer a new referendum and many not. While all this is going on there is no way that brexit will happen on the scheduled timeline. Brexit will likely be delayed for 1 or 2 years. There is no way the EU can force a hard brexit, the UK has the legal right to delay or cancel its decision at any point.