If bitcoin doesn't cross $100k in next 3 years or so it will be way below $1k because it will be dead. It's going to be either or, not neither. That's what bitcoin does, skyrocket to seemingly impossible heights every 4 years, then crashes back to a new normal that is higher than before. That's what it was built to do. Once it stops doing that, the game is over.
I agree, the expected outcomes are pretty binary. I believe Bitcoin is headed either to the millions (USD) or it will otherwise approach $0. There aren't many options available when we're talking about potentially mass adopted technologies. They either blow up or they eventually disappear.
I'm just not sure about the time aspect. The time between the 2011 and 2013 bubbles was only 2 years. It took 4 years the next time around. Is it possibly taking longer and longer with each cycle?