I think that some projects from both categories will die and other will grow into huge projects. Some old coins have already disappear and also some new ICOs are scam. So we will seee different coins on the market.
You are right. Some new projects will have their bull runs and some old projects will have to die. I just don't see all the current top 20 coins keeping their positions by the end of the year. The first ones to go will probably be SV and BCH. I wouldn't touch that those with a stick. At the same time there's this Grin that could be worth looking into.