I think that some projects from both categories will die and other will grow into huge projects. Some old coins have already disappear and also some new ICOs are scam. So we will seee different coins on the market.
Old coins doesnt mean its good, you still need to choose the right old coin to gain profit. The new coins will face so many challenges before you can say its a great coin, it must be succeed on their ICO and of course it should produced good services. At last, you still need to work hard for you to earn profit dont just depend to your luck.