Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: On stagnating prices
by
deisik
on 20/01/2019, 10:54:13 UTC
We have stagnant prices because the buying frenzy is over (that ended in early 2018) and the panic selling frenzy has also appeared to stop, at least for a while

That doesn't explain why the price action is so restricted for so long

If you look at Bitcoin's volatility in 2013-2018, you will see that while there were periods when the price didn't change much, it still wasn't stagnant. And now we have Bitcoin's price which we hadn't seen till the fall of 2017, i.e. most of Bitcoin's history, and it is basically stuck in a very narrow range, which raises eyebrows. And there is a reason for that. The current situation may be called a "potential well" of sorts, so whenever there is a hint on a strong price movement, either strong resistance or strong support instantly builds up

So if you ask me, that can be explained only if you admit or take into account there is a massive amount of shorts at play, which limit the price action in both directions. Indeed, there is still a possibility of a breakout, either via extreme manipulation aimed at wiping away these shorts or via somebody actually having an intention to buy or sell enough bitcoins that no buying or selling wall will be able to hold back

No.
Look at the last bear market. This is playing out no different. Now if we enter 2020 and prices are still in this range then yeah that is different, but compared to the last crash and bottoming out phase in 2015 and 2015 we're only about 60% of the way through this one (if it were to last the same amount of time). Which means we are still fairly early in the bottoming out phase. If prices stay stagnant (by which you really just mean the price has bottoming out) until Summer or Fall that would be normal. Bitcoin market is operating as normal right now, nothing new about it

Obviously, you don't see my point at all

Please read my post again about the price action in 2015 as I definitely remember how it felt back in the day. If we make adjustments for the price growth which happened since early 2015 (and that would give us a factor of 15, just in case), and apply that price action to today's prices, now we should be observing price swings in the range of 300-400 dollars every day, with every other week witnessing spikes exceeding 1k dollars. But what we actually see is nowhere near that. We are flatlining and you know what it means, i.e. nothing good