Sure. it is easily to see a spike in September in the time series plot.
There was also a boost in merit circulation during that period
Wrong!
They are potential merit abusers.
There is a topic, published by LoyceV about this issue:
List of demoted Jr. Members who were ranked up againmembers with smerits were hunting for good posters to award merits and rank up, likewise demoted jr members improved their posting, which was the sole purpose of the restrictions.
The spike was not simply due to merit abuse.