Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins
by
d'aniel
on 31/08/2011, 21:15:22 UTC
I think it's ridiculous and ignorant as hell to think there aren't traders who beat markets in the long run, in fact it's fairly certain that there are successful traders in pretty much every market possible.

Belief is not relevant, actual data is. Yes there are successful traders. In fact, just as many as chance predicts there will be. It doesn't mean that they're better than anyone else, it just means that out of a population of X performing essentially at random in a non-deterministic market some will "win", some will "lose".

The wake up call is when you realize that the above means that it's irrelevant whether a certain fund manager/TA-specialist/Buffet-clone has beaten the market for 10 years straight - historical performance is no predictor for the future.

This has been tested and tried over and over again. If you want to claim differently, we eagerly await your data Smiley And no, "I believe" is not data.

It seems weird to me that the data would show that human beings do not have the capacity to foresee future unmet demand.  If we're no better at this than chance, then this is the logical conclusion, correct?

I think the data actually shows that humans are no better on average than the average.  But that's not really surprising, is it?