I think these 'calculations' also include a lot of hope/optimism. A lot of people joined the crypto scene in 2017. For them all started with a the market cap rushing from one high to another. Then 2018 came and with it a lot of resignation. Now they think it MUST go up again soon.
I joined in the fall of 2012, so I remember 2014 and so on. Absolutely the same thing is happening now. With one amendment - the time period of the recession will be shorter than the previous one.
I hope you are right, I really do. A lot of promising projects from 2017/2018 need rising prices to ensure funding and also ongoing tokensales in 2019, like the one from Jarvis, would also profit if the market sentiment shifted to a more optimistic one. It's just that I currently don't see any reason yet that could spark another hype again.