I think these 'calculations' also include a lot of hope/optimism. A lot of people joined the crypto scene in 2017. For them all started with a the market cap rushing from one high to another. Then 2018 came and with it a lot of resignation. Now they think it MUST go up again soon.
I joined in the fall of 2012, so I remember 2014 and so on. Absolutely the same thing is happening now. With one amendment - the time period of the recession will be shorter than the previous one.
I disagree that the time period will be shorter, i can't see any indications for that. I would bet it's more or less the same unless the market makers decide it's going to be longer. There's still too many get rich quick idiots on the board. I can see one fake out before the bullrun though
The truth (and the reality) is that no one know when the market will turn bull again, it will happen when no one is expecting it, in my opinion