The Fed has been effectively raising rates gradually for the last 10 years. The cheering by the pundits claiming the Fed has yielded to the stock market only demonstrates their inability to ever be an international hedge fund manager for they are obviously clueless. I have explained the trend in detail on the general public blog. However, I do not post reversals of arrays there for obvious reasons.

We can see that 2018 was a Directional Change so a pull-back into 2019 was reasonable given this is now the final leg down of the ECM which bottoms in January 2020. Note that 2019 is the turning point and then we have another Directional Change in 2020 with a Panic Cycle in 2021. Volatility will rise from 2021 into 2023. It appears that rates will be rising after 2020 moving into 2023. While this will also be a commodity cycle, that is not the real cause of the rate rise we see on the horizon.
Rates will rise as more and more governments start to become obvious that there is a debt crisis brewing. With the rest of the world imploding, even China, rates will rise as a factor of a decline in public confidence. We still have 2021 showing as the beginning of the Monetary Crisis. There remains the risk of the Euro moving into crisis and this will result in rates rising. The ECM cannot stop Quantitative Easing no matter what they say.
Technically, the resistance stands at 2.67% on the Discount Rate at the Fed. So we have not broken out just yet. However, we did close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 2.25% settling at 2.5%. Therefore, we should fall back to retest support going into 2019 and then the breakout appears to be aligned with the ECM.