Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins
by
d'aniel
on 01/09/2011, 06:51:42 UTC
I guess my point then is that your data set is probably biased heavily in favour of traders that don't have informational edges.

I still don't understand what the point you're trying to make is. Are you talking about trading in the marketplace or cheating? You seem to seriously confuse the two.

So I hope I've given pretty strong arguments that patterns exist, and that some people can use them to make money, even if you can't necessarily prove it using statistical means

"I guess" and "I believe" is considered to be quite poor data.

Fact: No trader ever has outperformed chance.


The hell?  Of course they do!  All the time!

Some glaring examples:
  • arbitrageurs
  • short sellers who uncover dirt on companies
  • traders who uncover market manipulation
  • those who trade on insider information

You can reliably find 'alpha' by having an informational edge.

I strongly suggest you read the Tao of Alpha link posted above.