I'd say that there's a 25% chance of him being the original BTC_Bear.
Nice, thanks for your research and input on this. I'm betting he's not the original owner of the account just on language alone, and I'm hoping he'll just come clean now if that's true. He's already tagged with the possibility of the account being locked still on the table, so he might as well be honest at this point.
I dont think a 75% chance is appropriate for a negative rating.
I would point out there doesnt appear to be any motive in hacking the account as to my knowledge he hasnt even tried to conduct any business. Putting a lot of effort into falsely claiming you are the owner of an account isnt logical to me in this case.
I think the above is especially important because:
BTW, I'd like to take this opportunity to recognize & thank the original BTC_Bear (whether or not he is the current account owner), who on several occasions went to considerable effort to contribute to the forum in the early days.