Yeah we just rely on hope and it's the bad thing to do. There no one will know the increasing price is a trap, but you can sew up that this increasing price is not trap or is it trap, you have to see the market movement frequently and find some information that caused the price increase, if you found in information that said like a company or a merchant use bitcoin as payment system you can be sure the increasing price just temporary, sooner you will see the market will fall again. I think these matter can be used as a strategy for you to avoid losses.