With all due respect, why are we supposed to repeat prior flat mo for mo?
So far, at a macro level, it matches almost exactly. Dont ask me why, I just work here.
Everyone expected a plunge in January because it would be the same as in 2015, but it happened in December instead, so not really almost exactly.
I grant you that there is some similarity so far, but IMHO, this would go away soon.
One of the bigger differences will probably be that the next bull run won't be as much explosive as the previous ones. Otherwise Bitcoin would reach a ridiculous price... something I don't think will happen with just one single bull run. The curve must tend to gradually flatten. How much? Noone knows.
We keep declining above 80% (84-94%) after each peak, however, we increase smaller and smaller % in each cycle.
This would result in a lower low after a couple of cycles.
If the decreasing trend in X-factor increase of each peak (
X36 to X17 to X8 to X3.76 to X1.77; bold numbers indicate what already happened) is followed by about 84% plunge each time, then btc would peak at about 595K and then starts declining with lower lows for both peak and trough each time 595K (peak) to 95K (trough), then 95K to 168K (peak), then 168K to 27K (trough), etc.
$595K? See? That's what I mean by a ridiculously high price for next bull run. Even if I would love to be wrong... that's not gonna happen.
Also I forgot to say that the next bear market I don't expect it to dump as hard as previous ones.
Of course we are just speculating here. We will find out "soon"... during the next couple of years, maybe three.