interesting point.
what you said is more like the long term effects of these things on the price but you are also forgetting about the "hype" of these things in the market. the rejection part had some effects the first couple of times as it created some panic and now it is over since they have rejected/postponed hundreds of times. the acceptance however is going to be new and it can cause a hyped up situation where price shoots up temporarily and at this stage in the market that kind of shoot up can act as a catalyst that starts the rallies sooner.
'hype' is temporary. its just drama that is not sustainable. its just 2 sides of people fighting each other, one optimistic one pessimistic. and they just day trade off each other just hot potatoing coins between each other to get some profit, like like most day tradrs. not really taking coins out the exchang to lock up for years.
however actual coin purchasing and then taking the coins off the public markets to then use as ETF reserves. is different
imagine it this way. each day on one exchange there are only say 5000 actual coins and thy are day traded back and forth at 20 oppertunities a day to make 100,000 volume
the coins are still available and the following day still there being traded. thus no REAL lasting impact.
now imagine a company NEEDING 100,000 coins and actually taking 100,000 coins out of circulation to hold for ETF reserves.
then imagine in another month another company NEEDING 100,000 coins
it requires far LESS THAN 170 companies to take all coins (well we know not all coins are/have been available on the market)
so 'hype' is just playing with the same coins day in day out. where as ETF fresh applications requiring reserves upfront require actually grabbing coins and taking them out of public exchange circulation