Re: Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019
Registered accounts is on a steep descending trend, although we need to take into consideration that many are registered and never active at all. If we look at some data I interpreted back in November 2018 (see Analysis - Bitcointalk Accounts Date of Register vs Last Active per Rank), there is an interesting table that speaks for itself:
As we can see above, as of November 2018:
- Brand New accounts that stay as Brand New accounts are massive, and have been steadily increasing over the years
- Most of those Brand New accounts stay baron on creation, not being active (login-in) in the years after their creation. Take for example 2017: out of the 434.487 Brand New accounts, 348.196 did not log-in during 2018 (only 86.291 did).
The above just goes to show how many accounts are not active in terms of posting, and likely many of them are bot created accounts that the creator managed to create but did not get on to the next step: exploiting them with automated posts in campaigns. Current reduction monthly figures are therefore subject to what trend these type of accounts have. Nevertheless, reduction is noticeable.
Clicking on the profiles of OPs listed first user of the month, for each month, kind of hints what is going on behind the scenes: out of the 27 listed profiles, only 11 made at least 1 post, and out of the pre-2019 profiles, only 2 out of the 24 have been active during 2019.
Another complementary reading can be taken from the number of posts created per month:
The number of created post per month is dropping to similar numbers as those around the first half of 2017. There is an obvious correlation to crypto hype and value variance, and the numbers are interpretable according to ones perspective. For a person signed-up during early 2018, things are really quiet now. For a person who signed-up in 2016 or before mid 2017, numbers seem to be training back to those days.
Note: Number of posts reading for the 25/03/2019 is a linear projection of todays reading minus the reading on the 23/02/2019. Actual value may differ and I really expect it to be lower.
As we can see above, as of November 2018:
- Brand New accounts that stay as Brand New accounts are massive, and have been steadily increasing over the years
- Most of those Brand New accounts stay baron on creation, not being active (login-in) in the years after their creation. Take for example 2017: out of the 434.487 Brand New accounts, 348.196 did not log-in during 2018 (only 86.291 did).
The above just goes to show how many accounts are not active in terms of posting, and likely many of them are bot created accounts that the creator managed to create but did not get on to the next step: exploiting them with automated posts in campaigns. Current reduction monthly figures are therefore subject to what trend these type of accounts have. Nevertheless, reduction is noticeable.
Clicking on the profiles of OPs listed first user of the month, for each month, kind of hints what is going on behind the scenes: out of the 27 listed profiles, only 11 made at least 1 post, and out of the pre-2019 profiles, only 2 out of the 24 have been active during 2019.
Another complementary reading can be taken from the number of posts created per month:
The number of created post per month is dropping to similar numbers as those around the first half of 2017. There is an obvious correlation to crypto hype and value variance, and the numbers are interpretable according to ones perspective. For a person signed-up during early 2018, things are really quiet now. For a person who signed-up in 2016 or before mid 2017, numbers seem to be training back to those days.
Note: Number of posts reading for the 25/03/2019 is a linear projection of todays reading minus the reading on the 23/02/2019. Actual value may differ and I really expect it to be lower.