I really dont get the question. Overconfidence as well as fear is never a good teacher,no matter what you are doing. Nevertheless you have both sides in you, depending on how much you know and how you feel about something. Try to learn as much about cryptos as possible and trade as objective as possible.
I have always tried to objectively evaluate my chances, but I always managed to realize only 50% of their intentions. To even Until today, only half of my assets generate income in daily trading, and the other half really stayed in place.