Like the topic of this page, it just a kind of Speculation. From the bitcoin price chat history, November it a month that have more chance to have a higher price .
Some post their predictions with no "support" at all, some come with shiny graphs and analysis.
You come with some historic data, but at least you are honest: it's just speculation. I like that.
(Somehow I feel that this should written down more often, since many newbies or occasional readers may not know.)
Back on track: on history-based forecasts I tend to agree, November was - sometimes - a good month. On the other hand February-March used to be bad (Chinese New Year, Tax..) and this year it was not worse than the (already bad) average. So history may be deceiving too. I hope you are right and we'll be at 6k+ by November, though.