It some point you have to stop and ask yourself - Hang on, something is not right here?

The problem is it is a hard question to ask, and a harder question to answer. If your preconceptions lead you to conclude that I just flipped because I'm a bcash shill and i'm pumping my bags then more power to you. I've been more the honest about my actions leading up to the BTC top, told you that I sold early (I know not to try and catch tops). Check my post history, I've been consistent and honest for literally years. All this time I've studied and learned about bitcoin, its history, the tech, the economics, the legal aspects.

For those still open minded to what is really going on, my decision (initially) to finally let go of BTC after all those years preaching HODL mantra was filled with anguish and uncertainty, because I was an 'early adopter' again. Swimming against the tide, but inside me I knew things didn't add up with SegWit & LN.Of course, in time they will say "I was lucky". They said the same about Bitcoin. Never once did they bother to inform themselves though. At least now it should be becoming clearer, the decision should be getting easier day by day, providing you are looking at information, as opposed to news and opinion.

So I hope now as things are unfolding that (much as at the start of this thread, honestly go back and read its priceless!) people realise I'm not entirely full of crap. I could be wrong sure, but at least I will have been intellectually honest about it.

Honestly I want as many people as possible to get out of BTC before they get hurt. The point of Bitcoin for me has always been *everyone* can use it and *everyone* benefits. Yet BTC has been moving away from that for literally years. Fees, settlement, SegWit circumvention of PoW, all insidious changes that ostensibly seem to be for the better, but look at the big picture. Where is the utility driving the s-curve off adoption, if there is no underlying s-curve value, then what will springboard the next rally?

Don't get stung with dogmatic thinking, dogmatic thinking is what caused people to laugh at the notion BTC would ever again go below $10k.

Dogmatic thinking is what leads people to still think that LN is a magical scaling solution (it's not), that doesn't require custodial wallets (it does) and isn't just banking v2.0 (it is - it even said so in the white paper, but who reads those right?).

Dogmatic thinking is what makes people focus more on whether or not CSW is Satoshi, and less on what is Bitcoin.

If you are focusing on the former, you've been had, hoodwinked, distracted from the prize. The prize is valuable, so inevitably many will try to mislead you. The prize is Bitcoin, you just need to find it. I'm not going to tell you where to find it, you have to find it yourself. It's the only way.

Remember you are looking at the balance of probability, not beyond reasonable doubt. Perfect is the enemy of good. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck. If someone tries to tell you, "aha, its not a duck because it has a lazy eye" ask yourself why they would deny the objectivity of the duck based on non duck criteria.

tl;dr - the bottom is in (dont expect any sudden moves though, could take months before it resolves). Make sure you are on the right train leaving the station. They will all leave together, but some will run out of steam long before the others.