Re: Does any body know what happened to today's price?
The price hit 5,000 today. Obviously, it will fall back to 4,000 these days. But does anybody know what the hale it is?
a key resistance ($4200) was broken. lots of stop losses were sitting right above that breakout area. looks like some big liquidations too. margin calls + stop run = fast price movement. it doesn't necessarily indicate a new bull market or anything, just that temporarily shorts were heavy, supply was low and demand was strong.
i'm really glad to see this breakout though. it's the first weekly higher high since december 2017. i think we're really carving out a bottom range now. give it 6 more months and we might just have ourselves a bull market.
For reference, look at October 2015, same thing happened to start the last bull run.
way less time has passed this time, with a much less significant breakout. we're gonna form the upper end of a range with this rally IMO. i think people are getting a bit too overexcited right now.
Then is the capitulation currently out of the picture?
Because I believe it's already out. The market has adjusted, and learned from the past that selling on panic is a "no no".
i don't think the market has learned anything. it just panics in both directions---that's what markets do, especially speculative and thin ones like bitcoin. bulls get squeezed, then bears get squeezed, rinse/repeat.
i've been calling a relief rally to $5k+ for months now so IMO nothing has changed. when this rally runs out of steam, the pendulum will swing back like it always does and sentiment will turn uber bearish with everyone expecting new lows.
whether we actually get those new lows (and a classic capitulation) is another matter. it's certainly possible (just look at past bitcoin bottoms), especially if everyone agrees it won't happen. but no matter what, i'm confident we won't be springing into a new bull market from here. bulls have been on easy street for the past couple months and they're gonna have their meddle tested, starting with the late buyers who are buying now and higher.