Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
jbreher
on 03/04/2019, 22:09:45 UTC
I'm calling Bitcoin post count parity some time in 2024. Whether that Bitcoin be BTC, BCH, or SV is an open question.

I think the next FOMO pile-in is going to make evident to the world the weaknesses of the Core-ian approach to scaling. The other forks (hewing more closely to Satoshi's inspired design) will be there to pick up the slack.

Incidentally, while BTC is up 14+% in the last 24 hours, BCH is up over 27% in the same time frame.

Yes, SV is lagging at 11+%. ::sigh::

Oh my fucking god.  You are either sick or delusional to still be having those kinds of illusions of grandeur in respect to those two shitty-ass bcash projects.

Still unanswered: How LN is going to help when Layer 1 is already clogged to the point of uselessness.

That's simple. First of all, your scenario has never happened. The blockchain has never been "clogged to the point of uselessness."

I would argue that $100 tx fees and days-long waits are such a state of reduced usefulness that 'useless' is an apt descriptor. We were there before, and we are once again trending there.

Quote
But let's say BTC again skyrockets and the median transaction fee goes up to $10. This means people will be incentivized to use Lightning and do as much LN transacting as possible before a channel must be closed.

How is that going to happen when new players are unable to get an LN channel opening tx mined into a block? 1ML tells me that the current average channel value is 0.027 BTC - $144.00 USD. Who is going to pay $100 to be able to transact $144? Nevermind the next $100 to close the channel again. Yes, in time this channel value will increase. But it is currently hard-capped, right?

Quote
During the entirety of the bear market Lightning has been preparing itself for exactly such an occurrence, all the while its critics were talking about how it will harm miners and is unsafe to use. Meanwhile its grown in leaps and bounds, and will continue to grow the higher BTC goes.

Yep, growing by leaps and bounds. 1ML reports total network fundage at about $5.5M USD. If one could aggregate all the funds in the entire LN (though of course one cannot), one would be able to buy a single house in most any market. But of course, that would exhaust the entire LN capacity. And leave no home buying power for any other LN participant. I mean, kudos on the growth, but LN needs further orders of magnitude to become something significant.

Quote
Incidentally, while BTC is up 14+% in the last 24 hours, BCH is up over 27% in the same time frame.

BCH and SV aren't rising on their own merits.

Sez you.

Quote
Put yourself in the shoes of the average business owner who is still skeptical of cryptocurrency and is only beginning to consider adopting BTC for their business... Then along comes this chatter about how BCH and SV are better, and they look into it, only to discover that now they have to learn how to use and install 2 more wallets that aren't compatible with BTC, in the hopes that they will have customers who want to pay in BCH and SV.

Always amazes me how so many who have obviously never been responsible for running a business seem to feel qualified to pontificate upon what a business owner might do. Which is easier for a biz owner to implement - a BCH wallet (or a link to a BCH payment processor), or their own LN node?