Inspired by Kurious' recent post, I'd like to post about some related things I've been thinking about:

It seems there are two schools of thought regarding the bubble cycle we've just begun.

• That it will be the same length as every other cycle, as dictated by the halvings. Bubble top: late 2021/early 2022
• Or, that the cycles have been lengthening, and therefore our current cycle will be the longest and hit the top later than in previous cycles. Bubble top: late 2022/early 2023

There's a great debate, on this exact subject, between two of the best analysts on crypto twitter here: https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1078316170493734918

It seems that scenario 2 is the consensus among the majority of analysts (and previously myself) - that the next bubble will gain a lower percentage than previous bubbles, and it will take longer. Something like this:



However, there are reasons to believe that may not be the case:

• Bakkt, ETFs, and institutional adoption are likely to be involved in the next bubble. This alone isn't quite as convincing as it's often made out to be. Institutional adoption almost has to be there to take us to the next level, and is baked into every pricing scenario >$50k IMO.
• We may be in the third of four four-year cycles (forming a 16-year super cycle). The four-year cycles can be loosely broken down as 4 phases, the four classic market phases: Accumulation, Uptrend, Distribution, Downtrend.
  
  
  
  The 16 year super cycle can be broken down  the same way, which means we've just begun the four-year Distribution phase, which is essentially the topping phase. If our prices follow this model, then the next bubble top will be the blow of top of the blow off top. It will be the mother of all bubbles ($300K+ possible).  This theory is touched on here, with graphs. He says these kind of cycles are often found in other commodities.
• We're reaching the vertical section of the S-curve. Crypto usage rates are notoriously hard to calculate. Kaspersky recently said that 10% of people have bought something online with crypto. We know there is another portion of crypto users who just speculate and hodl, without ever buying anything. If we put that number of people at 50% (pulling this out of my ass) of people purchasing with crypto, we've got 15% of potential crypto users actually using crypto.
  
  
  
  Of course, since the dawn of the space age, the S curve hasn't looked much like an S:
  
  
  
  Assuming price follows adoption, as it has with every technology which has followed Metcalfe's law that I'm aware of, the crypto twitter/tradingview/bitcointalk seeming consensus of ~$90K-100K is overly conservative.
  Keep in mind, if Bitcoin were Facebook, we'd still be at pre-IPO levels (circa 2009)