So an interesting situation developing here.  So far since the 2017 peak, we have stuck faithfully to the 2014/15 fractal.  If we were to go up from here, it would suggest we were breaking up away from the fractal, at least temporarily.  Nothing to get too excited about, but worth watching.  We are certainly a bit ahead of schedule at the moment, which is consistent with traders attempting to front run the 2014/15 model.  Click on pics for higher resolution.  



I have been wondering how to explain the price capping out at $5,300 and think I have my answer.  The price has run up to the 300 Day MA and is now sitting nicely in the middle of a channel between the 300 Day MA and the 200 Day MA.



Our fear and greed index is leaning towards greedy.


^{Note:  ignore the 21 February tag in this image - it is the reading on 5 April.}

On balance I think we need a good shake of the tree to pull us back down.  Too many people are too bullish right now.  So I am projecting another drop down and a bit more despair.  Maybe we will break down through the 200 MA Daily into the high $3ks to give people a bit of a kick in the ass, and then crawl our way back up.  I would never short this because we are in a bull market now, but a good opportunity to BTD.