Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
I am throwing this up for Hairy, Toxic, fillippone and all - just in case it helps in the debate and helps in finding as many key points as possible to watch. Things to watch and check if the fractal is matching, going at the same pace, or not. The actual price obviously cannot possibly fit exactly - but there has been a pattern and it's been too close to ignore. A 4-year cycle, an 85% drop from the high, highs in December... we have all spotted it. But what will tell us more; or bring up further thoughts that might lend an edge to guessing what's coming?
That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post) it is likely it will be front run and therefore the pattern will break... Perhaps only in terms of its velocity, perhaps in totally breaking it - but there are numbers, markers, and time points along the way - so it must be possible to at least see how close it's running to pattern, or if it's diverging predictably, or just veering off.
That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post) it is likely it will be front run and therefore the pattern will break... Perhaps only in terms of its velocity, perhaps in totally breaking it - but there are numbers, markers, and time points along the way - so it must be possible to at least see how close it's running to pattern, or if it's diverging predictably, or just veering off.
Agreed.
How does this play with your fractals theory Hairy? Are the markets being front run as savy investors gear up for the next mania phase? Genuinely interested in your thoughts or anyone elses on the matter.
Yes I think the fractal is being front run by a couple of months by traders trying to get an edge. But they are probably being too greedy right now and have gotten ahead of themselves.
If we break the fractal and break upwards, I am developing a theory that 2019/2020 will see a rerun of the 2013 double peak. The 2015 fractal is conclusively front run and broken upwards, and then we coming screaming back down and Bitcoin is pronounced dead. And then after Bitcoin is officially dead, we bounce parabolically upwards.
Please note, this model is dependent on a massive price surge in 2019. If we do not see a surge to $10k or above, then much less likely to eventuate.
The chart below shows what I consider to be the more likely outcome, which is a reversion to the 2015 fractal.
Yep - front running creating a false start is actually even 'likely' (given expectations).
An early rush going over 10k by autumn this year, lots of froth and fomo starting and then a pull back before EOY, just as the 'here we go' was kicking in.
Then two runs makes sense, too
A fake run that fizzles before 'Moon' and baffles everyone. Then a 'real run' becomes possible (and organic) after a few month's breather. I can see that as a very plausible scenario.