.00000009279 = .000009279% chance I will flip at least 36 heads (i.e. trade positively at least 36/40 times)
Edit 2: You do realize that the chances of trading at 90% profit become less likely the more times I trade...right? I hope you weren't implying that my chances of doing this across 40 trials were good, were you?
Nah I wanted to see if you considered after-the-fact to be the same as before-the-fact, which you did. Even if we go by "approx" and "about" being at the top of your own estimation - your numbers show that if there are 11 million traders in the world one will indeed be so lucky by chance alone.
That's what the whole "traders don't outperform chance" means. We talk about the successful ones, not the ones that don't beat the market.
So, I propose the following: For 40 days you'll post if you believe the price of BTC will be higher or lower than the day before, MtGox GMT timezone. Now if we're indeed on a steady downward slope due to inflation there should be a slight skew, but I'm quite sure you won't hit 36/40.
(The point being that after-the-fact is a lot easier, all you have to do is to be selective as to which trades you count)
I've never so far had anyone doing TA take me up on such a wager anyway.