Could happen.  That's not even a 20% drop, and those happen all of the time in bitcoin land.  Maybe a bit greater than 60% odds of happening from here?

But then again, might not happen.

Does it make a big difference to your own holdings or psychology about your holdings?

If you start to get worried that a $1k drop might not happen from this particular price point, then you just buy 1/3 now, 1/3 on a $500 drop and $1/3 on the $1k drop (if it does happen)..

Then at least you have not put too much reliance into something that may or may not happen... .