Anyhow, now I am feeling like I am just repeating myself in various ways.. so I am not sure what points differ between you and me, except maybe different ways of framing the issues and the dynamics and likelihood that we do not really disagree about a lot of the underlying dynamics, motivations or distinctions, but we have differing ways of expressing such
I still think there is a fundamental difference in our views
And not on individuals (where we seem to agree), and not even so much on institutions (this is kinda a gray zone where the possible disagreement is vague and not defined) as on governments. My point is that major governments like the US, China, Russia will never accept crypto as a full-fledged currency (other than an economic weapon against each other and the rest of the world)
That would mean undercutting their fiat currencies by letting the competitor in. In simple terms, this is not going to happen as this has little if anything to do with the "honey badger" (and more with politics, so they can't be forced). Some governments may in fact embrace crypto in due course (and that's good) but they won't matter in the grand scheme of things. In these circumstances institutions won't have a say
I cannot disagree with any of that, and really if we are speculating about 1-5 years down the road, that is fairly immediate term, and we can only attempt to realistically predict for short periods at a time, because what large governments do next will in part depend upon what others are doing.
Even large governments are not entities of themselves, and they are mandated by the will of the people. Whether they are carrying out the will of the people on behalf of a vast majority or a smaller contingency, even the BIG governments are not going to have too many choices to go against the masses in the event that institutions adopt bitcoin and smaller governments and various rich individuals have built businesses around bitcoin.
If we are talking about what governments are doing now in respect to bitcoin, we can attempt to measure it, and likely they are not doing very much because bitcoin remains too small, and that is back to my point. On the other hand, even though I am proclaiming bitcoin to be so damned small that neither large governments nor large institutions are acting, they are composed of individuals and smaller entities that increasingly recognize bitcoin to be important.