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But if it did occur, then a spend with the same input,output and quantity should have shown up to the receiver address right? Just not with the original txout. It wouldn't explain a transaction delay where nothing is transacted or would it?
Let me explain further, ppl dont receive their coins isnt because of this. Its because Gox system (bookkeeping) got messed up and send out non available coins since all tx are chain-linked.
Ok, so they sent out some coins. Then because they didn't see the txout in the blockchain (whether by helpful or malicious use of malleability), they considered the coins not spent and kept trying to send out the same coins that were not theirs anymore, blowing up their whole accounting system?
Given my own experience this must have been going on already on the 28th of january.