@ Strike Eagle 26
Buying against the Reversals has worked out last Year on a Weekly basis. And I didnt do it only on the Third Reversal. My observation was that: when the Price moves quick to the Reversal it will bounce off. When the Price comes slowly near the chance of electing is greater. This is just my theory and needs further proof.
MA also wrote that the speed of the move is important. Has anyone experience to share?
And thanks for the Links, read them all. And missed some of them
...
I believe that notion is correct because the
The Reversal System works best under extreme volatility the greater the panic, the higher the accuracy. So those reversals are offering key areas of support and resistance within any given market.
if a major reversal is generated and elected within 3 months the degree of panic and volatility will be much greater but this does not happen very often. The longer a reversal takes to be elected the lower degree of volatility thereafter.
Etoimene,
A Cycle Inversion simply means that what should have declined flips and inverts into a rally. The turning points are the same, they simply produce successive highs. And the same is true in reverse.
A cycle inversion would have become possible if we exceeded the January high in Feb intraday but would have ultimately been confirmed if we closed February above the close for the month of January.
See link below on how to detect whether a cycle inversion is happening or not
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/defining-a-cycle-inversion/"corrections are confined to a maximum of 3 timing intervals." This is exactly what happened on the Dow where January was a turning point and the correction was over by April(unit of 3) where we hit an intraday low.
"A failure to make new highs and a penetration of the February low AFTER April would imply a correction moving into probably July."(unit of 6) Which would of indicated a change in trend and not a mere reaction.
This is The Golden Rule of Reactions
"That fundamental principle is where do we draw the line between a change in trend and a mere reaction. That line is drawn in units of 2 to 3 maximum"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-golden-rule-of-reactions/ "Bullish and bearish markets have empirical nominal durations that last specific time units (days, weeks, months, years): Bullish: 7-11-14-21 time units Bearish: 2-3-5-6-10-12-18 time units "
In order to understand more about cyclical analysis I recommend you read one of the most important and revealing writings by Armstrong in my opinion "It's Just Time" where Armstrong goes into great detail.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/its-just-time-martin-armstrong.pdf