MA_Talk You claim to have been following Armstrong for decades yet have misunderstood even what a panic cycle is please explain to me again since you are such an expert?
.....
Thats not true all you have to do is type into google: "panic cycle" Armstrong Economics
You can also go to his website and type in the search bar. "panic cycle" and you be able to read just about everything he ever said about it.
In summary
70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.
"The Panic Cycle can also be a big move in one direction, but they are often outside reversals meaning that they can exceed the previous high and then penetrate the previous low"
So for example The month of February 2019 was a panic cycle on the Dow since it was a big move in one direction. I recall many posts of you saying the month of Feb was not a panic cycle
"The major Cycle of Political Change appears to be the duration of 224 years In which there are 26 periods of 8.615 years."
Source(
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/how-all-systems-can-collapse-overnight-709.pdf)
Just not so sure about your calculation on the 26 year frequency other than it is 8.6 x 3 = 25.8
StrikeEagle,
Based on the above definition of panic cycle, and using Feb as a reference for a fast one way move, I used 3.5% as the monthly gain or loss.
Below is what I did using DIA as the Dow Jones for the checking the validity of February panic cycle, and all of these months SHOULD have been called by Armstrong as panic cycles, But I know for sure he did NOT call 2019 Jan.
2019 Feb
2019 Jan
2018 Dec
2018 Oct, outside month (exceeding both low & high of prior month)
2018 Jul
2018 Mar
2018 Feb
2018 Jan
2017 Nov
2017 Oct
Between 2017 October to 2019 April (in 29 months), 10 months above out of 29 months SHOULD have been called by Armstrong as panic cycles. That is MORE than one third of the time. That showed that if your criteria for stating Feb 2019 was a panic cycle, that is simply AWFULLY loose. As an exaggeration, it's almost like predicting that the next person that comes through the door will be male. Even without doing much, anybody could just keep saying that every month will be a PANIC CYCLE, would have gotten more than 1/3 correct.
Furthermore, based on your breakdown on percentage, such "panic cycle" information is extremely hard to be used for making any money even when the information is accurate, because Armstrong never tells you the direction of the market, or whether it is going to be a high or low. So 30% of that breakdown, even assuming that you know the direction instead of an outside month, cannot be traded because it could be an outside month, where you could get killed on both directions. The better trade should have been betting on the 70% of the time as an outside month, and LONG both call/put with strike price closer to middle range, I believe. That would have been a losing trade, given your loose definition.
If Armstrong's definition for these terms are such loose (so that he can be "correct" time after time), the information is simply NOT very helpful.
By the way, don't ask me why the raw data downloaded from Yahoo had so many fractional digits.
10/1/2017 224.190002 234.699997 224.020004 233.630005 226.153091 50038700 4.38%
11/1/2017 234.600006 243.490005 232.649994 242.839996 235.254181 61406200 3.94%
12/1/2017 243.139999 248.610001 239.410004 247.380005 240.227097 73664300 1.87%
1/1/2018 248.339996 265.929993 247.229996 261.440002 254.461792 102194100 5.68%
2/1/2018 259.950012 262.899994 233.759995 250.199997 243.656693 183041700 -4.30%
3/1/2018 250.210007 254.720001 234.850006 241.399994 235.688904 121375800 -3.52%
4/1/2018 240.330002 248.479996 233.199997 241.539993 236.256378 107013400 0.06%
5/1/2018 240.690002 250.669998 235.119995 244.179993 238.966553 82708700 1.09%
6/1/2018 246.139999 254.160004 239.830002 242.729996 238.217728 99747700 -0.59%
7/1/2018 240.919998 255.679993 240.619995 254.169998 249.817841 75848400 4.71%
8/1/2018 253.899994 261.769989 249.860001 259.850006 255.724808 79662700 2.23%
9/1/2018 259.220001 267.609985 257.820007 264.399994 260.750702 63102800 1.75%
10/1/2018 266.100006 269.279999 241.050003 251.190002 248.230576 163946700 -5.00%
11/1/2018 252.149994 262.970001 242.710007 255.509995 252.654037 93217400 1.72%
12/1/2018 260.170013 260.299988 216.970001 233.199997 231.142029 136737400 -8.73%
1/1/2019 229.270004 251 226.360001 250.119995 248.581711 93233700 7.26%
2/1/2019 250.669998 262.359985 249.130005 259.279999 257.869446 60166600 3.66%
3/1/2019 261.149994 261.679993 252.460007 259.130005 258.427185 88451200 -0.06%
4/1/2019 261.230011 265.929993 260.579987 265.559998 265.401367 47338400 2.48%