My first post, and hopefully this will be of interest in the Martin Armstrong legitimacy debate:

Background
There is some truth in the quoted words above, even though I have paid $$$$ to attend MA's WEC in Orlando (will explain more about that below) and still read his blog daily. I do enjoy following MA's work, but still question everything and accept his 8.6 cycle might be elaborate and highly convincing disinformation/hoax. It is similar to any other bait and switch swindle, where you feed your audience fact, fact, lie. They are then easier to influence and extract money from.

Much of MAs work appears to be based on the age old social theory of historicism, only MA has now codified it into a "workable" system - allegedly using AI and a computer system. Interestingly, Plato, and his student - SOCRATES - also followed this theory. So his theory/system isn't even new by historical standards. You could argue it is just a rehash of age old social theories.

The other major theory that the West/political elites actually practise is individualism/situational logic, which is also what most economists and traders "subscribe" to. That also makes MA somewhat unique. And that fundamentally is at the core of this entire debate.


Lies?
I recall a blog post by MA where he explained their new offices were "just about complete":
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/new-offices-are-just-about-completed/

As the OP explains, that may well be complete BS. Further investigation (as can be seen in the image on MA's blog) is this is the BB&T building in St Pete. This has virtual office facilities, so any one-man band business can thus claim a prestigious address. Moreover, I found this after a 30s Google search:

https://www.regus.ru/en-ru/virtual-office/united-states/florida/st-petersburg/florida-st-petersburg-first-central-tower

And it is exactly the same image. I then quickly took a look at the holding (Inc.) company:

AE Global Solutions

And could only find one address in Florida:
15600 FL-699
Redington Beach, Florida

That is a residential address, and it probably is MA's house. If you take a look at Google street view and look back at the house adjacent to the driveway, you can see a BMW i8, which MA even mentions he owns in some of his blog posts. Hence, his business premises consist of:

1. His home
2. At best, a virtual office.

Moreover, payments for Socrates are taken from an FZ LLZ entity. That is an Abu Dhabi based business and is done so for tax reasons. Again, you can be a one man band and easily set up such a thing.

In terms of "global organisation" with office space, I think that is a lie.

The question is, why? When dealing with such controversial subjects as economics, trading and finance, credibility is ESSENTIAL.


Wealth?
One would expect MA to be a billionaire at the least what with his knowledge and (alleged) prowess at trading. Granted many super wealthy people live relatively modest lives so as not to attract attention, or simply because material wealth does not interest them, but but if the above is indeed MA's residence, it doesn't look particularly fitting for someone who must have huge wealth.

Also, the fact he charges so much for the WEC, his reports and subscriptions also suggests someone is in need of maximising their income - even though MA explains money is of little interest to him. Perhaps he really is incredibly wealthy, but just plays it down owing to what I explained above: he doesn't want the attention and prefers a simple, modest life.

Of course, I am not saying anything should be free or even low cost - far from it. Quality products and services should justify their price points. However, even a basic sub to Socrates at $15 a month seems a bit steep as you literally only get a global map of capital flows, some (not all) private blog posts, and market watch functionality that is inferior to even free services. Charging almost $3k for a two-day event ticket also seems a bit steep, even though it is a good event with lots of genuinely interesting talking points.


Potential peers?
I have also looked into whether anyone else subscribes into MA's theories and thinking. I found something.

A book was published in 2016 by three Russians:
Leonid Grinin
Andrey Korotayev
Arno Tausch

Called:

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

I am currently reading through. Here is what is interesting: the above authors also published a work named:

Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions

Granted "phase transition" is not a term AE invented, but he does use it to explain financial models, where it is most commonly used in the world of physics.

IF MA is somewhat of a charlatan, then I wonder if he might be plagiarising the work of relatively unknown socioeconomic professors in foreign lands who get VERY little media exposure in the West? That way, he would also get away with it.



Attending the WEC in Orlando
I attended Martin Armstrong's WEC in Orlando last year. It is pricey, plus the flight to the US and accommodation. I also met him briefly and asked to his ear - being a natural sceptic of everything - how his model could be "accurate" where if it is based on datapoints, he does not have all the datapoints of everything on the planet. More data = more accuracy. That is universally true of any scientific pursuit.

At best, his model should then simply give an indication of a potential event based on SAMPLED data. Therefore, it cannot be correct all of the time.

His response to my question was somewhat defensive, and he explained it is accurate as it has called so many major global events to the day. His body language to my question was also defensive - he seemed taken aback that anyone would dare question his model, especially as an event attendee.

Also at the event, there was a lot of chatter among attendees of the significance of "pi day". That was Nov 21 2018 and nothing significant happened. It was then explained away as a "turning point" and not necessarily something major like a stock market crash or a war. While I can accept that if you understand the ECM, why not instead call out the actual flashpoints, rather than the lighted tinderbox "moments"?

Others I spoke to had similar opinions to those on this board. Parts of MA's work on economics, history and law was solid. But Socrates itself was ambiguous, difficult to understand or possibly worth dismissing altogether and following your own trading strategies based on experience.

This did make me question MA's Socrates model.

However, I will add I found the event very interesting and have no regrets going. If anything, it allowed for further scrutiny of MA and his model. The talk about global socioeconomics and what the future has in store was fascinating. It was well put together and delivered, was logical and I do believe much of what was discussed will end up happening.

Would I attend another? I was considering it, but then ultimately, how much new content will be added over 6 months (Rome WEC) or 12 (Orlando WEC)? I am not convinced so much would have changed it justifies another $2750 for a ticket, plus travel and accommodation. I would rather put that money into an investment and accept not being 100% up to date with the latest global economic insights from MA, which is where I still feel he has the most value.

Would I use Socrates or his prophesied calls to trade my money? Probably not, but then I am a conservative, "safe risk" type of investor.


What I do like
MA himself seems like a decent guy and I do enjoy reading up about his work regarding economics, history and the law. I also do believe in the cyclical nature of the universe/physics and how everything is connected. There are repeatable patterns in everything, even totally unconnected systems, and that also agrees with the work of Einstein and Tesla as two examples of prominent, respected and peer reviewed scientists.

However, I still accept that MA does not get everything right. He made a big call that May 2019 would see a significant event. If that comes to pass, then my interest will begin to further wane. The next big call is Jan 2020.

If those two months do indeed see major events unfold, then I will continue to believe he has found something truly groundbreaking - at least his ECM. However, Socrates as a trading platform - the jury is still out. Even MA himself explained that on very short timelines, it is far more difficult to predict anything, simply because less data exists, less volume, and thus volatility is more acute.

Over longer timelines, it does become far easier to predict future events, not least as erratic datapoints are smoothed out and you aren't using such a small sample size of data. Macro-level data is easier to work with than micro-level. That is also why day trading is very high risk vs. value investing.