honestly with bitcoin, the historically easiest and smartest trade to do is just trade your dollars for BTC when ready and 'sit in' like you say
that takes some amount of knowledge to realize

it's not really luck, it's just resolve if they know why they're sitting

edit: in which case, I point to the historical 3-12% USD inflation rate per year and
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232802.0