"If I'm right in the thesis, what do I get?"
"But on the other hand, if I am wrong, what is the maximum I lose?"
With these two bezels on your head, it's easy to size and risk your bet.
The risk is huge and so we must scale very well the amount we have to lose, not to fall into the fallacy of trying to solve life with a single shot.
Is never a good idea to gamble all your investment in one project definitely we know Bitcoin is a good Crypto to hold for a decades but on the other hand you can still look out for other Crypto altcoin to hold to. There is always a risk in investment. So plan out your risk management well.
Their is a big risks to bet it all in bitcoin to have a goal to earn in crypto invest in other coin to meet your expectation. Decide on diversifying your money into different worthy project that will give a return of profit this way it will help you to avoid lose.