"If I'm right in the thesis, what do I get?"
"But on the other hand, if I am wrong, what is the maximum I lose?"
With these two bezels on your head, it's easy to size and risk your bet.
The risk is huge and so we must scale very well the amount we have to lose, not to fall into the fallacy of trying to solve life with a single shot.
If you bet or put your money on bitcoin then I think the risk is quite low when compared to the movement of the value of Alts.
Anyways, what kind of thesis are you talking about, there are some things that you should make sure, especially for me thats trade is not something like gambling and this is not a lucky game. Then if you ask the loss and profit in this case the same, because you are all in.