there is no way to predict the next ATH as it was impossible to predict $20k to be the previous ATH even when we were heading there. and based on my experience whenever people fixate on some price ($50k for example) it means the ATH is going to be a lot higher than that.
but the price by the end of this year is more predictable although still hard. i say somewhere around $10k is reasonable because the real resistances are near there and everything else below that mark is just the temporary panic sell resistance which only helps the whale accumulators.
Lol, if I am to work with your formula based on the part B of your first paragraph, since you said any time analyst predicts a particular value, there is tendency of bitcoin growing above that, now that you too have predicted $10k for the end of the year, which means we should be expecting something around 15K, that is not a bad value at all, that is already very close to the ATH of last bull.
AT least with that value by the end of this year, if people dont Panic sell their holding to recover their last investment, and then we might double the value by next year, probably after the halving, or during the bull run.