"If I'm right in the thesis, what do I get?"
"But on the other hand, if I am wrong, what is the maximum I lose?"
With these two bezels on your head, it's easy to size and risk your bet.
The risk is huge and so we must scale very well the amount we have to lose, not to fall into the fallacy of trying to solve life with a single shot.
If you bet them all into bitcoin, it is equivalent of suicidal mate. If you remembered that there's a quotation said which is
"Never put your eggs in one basket" in one basket, at least if you put them into different basket even you made a mistakes in some basket, you still have a chance to recover you loss, same goes here in bitcoin trading dude.