So I like green dildo's as much as the next guy .. ( wow, the ways THAT could be taken out of context...)
But I'm starting to get just slightly concerned we may be moving to fast.. anyone besides me getting that feeling?
50% increase in less than 2 months....
We're not in the parabolic mode quite yet.. but it does seem to me we are heading there quite fast.. I'd really like to see at least month or two bouncing around in the low 6xxx range before our next serious step up...
to fast, to soon means we hit a blow off top that is to low to hit my retirement target.. that would... annoy me....
I know that if you look at the last 5 weeks or so, starting from our April 1, break through $4,200, it appears that there has been a bit much in regards to price appreciation.. but bitcoin does these kinds of things. It is not out of the ordinary.
First of all, there is almost no fucking way that bitcoin is getting to any kind of new ATH within the 10 months (if that is what you mean by "retirement target"), so in that regard, we should expect a decent number of 30% plus corrections between here and $20k... but even going from here to $20k is more than a 3x price appreciation, so in order to return to $20k (which is NOT an unreasonable expectation) we should be anticipating both periods of seeming froth that goes along with correction, and also the fact that sometimes the seeming froth is not really froth, but just getting back to previous price points (let's say in the $6k range), and maybe we could see a 50% or more price appreciation from here before any meaningful correction in the 30% plus arena takes place.
In other words, it is almost pie in the sky for any experienced bitcoiner to really be expecting any kind of smooth sailing (or that infamously unrealistic word, "stability") between here and $20k and beyond, including likely ongoing emotional turmoil.
I am not "expecting" it, but it is possible if we are on a "hockey stick" of btc adoption.
Roughly: we almost doubled in less than 6 mo. If we are already on an exponent, then 12K could come in 3 mo, then 24K in another 1.5 mo, projecting 24K in 4.5 mo or by October 2019.
If we are on a linear rapid growth starting with the surge from 4K, then we might reach about 10K by November, then probably pause.
I give the first scenario 10-20% probability and the second one 40-50% probability.
The third scenario (where we pause at 6K)-maybe 30-50% probability.
Sure, any of your above described scenarios are probable, yet it seems that scenario 1 would be less than 10% chance, but at least you do recognize that scenario to be of quite a bit lesser probability, than your other two scenarios. Furthermore, we surely can be on a hockey stick and aiming towards the exponential upswing of the hockey stick while still experiencing either scenario 2 or 3... and we could also experience a scenario 4, which is to correct back down into the $3ks and then come back up again... and still be in the early stages of the exponential portion of the hockey stick.