"If I'm right in the thesis, what do I get?"
"But on the other hand, if I am wrong, what is the maximum I lose?"
With these two bezels on your head, it's easy to size and risk your bet.
The risk is huge and so we must scale very well the amount we have to lose, not to fall into the fallacy of trying to solve life with a single shot.
When you are in trading risk is the word that you have to deal with it. there is only two things happens you won and you lose. so it's simple that there is no other thing beside won and lose. everyone want to be a winner. who effort there work in trading very much only those person win. if you think bitcoin have a great future then you can do that. what ever you do what ever you choose just thesis the right way.
I second your statement about the risk factor in trading and that is something you either face or you get out of the market. But in my opinion, you do not have to put in all you have in Bitcoin. In fact no body has to do that because there is risk in doing that and you have to have diversified assets and investments. Not just Bitcoin because a down market for long here will make things tough for you.