Just posting a quick update.  I admit I kinda "forgot" about BitcoinTalk in favour of Crypto Twitter these days, but thought I should at least update this - and yes, it's still relevant!

So, when we had the pullback in November 2018 the price was way above the "forecast" price according to the model I outlined in 2017.  I had hoped I was wrong and that price would keep above it, but lo and behold we swung around and pulled below it:


    Date     Forecast Price   Actual Price   % Actual of Forecast
 1 Nov 2018    $4,240.84       $6,316.09       148.93%
 1 Dec 2018    $4,553.19       $4,097.44        89.99%
15 Dec 2018    $4,706.72       $3,171.72        67.39%      <== Lowest price since 2017
 1 Jan 2018    $4,900.13       $3,710.86        75.73%
 7 Feb 2019    $5,348.99       $3,365.06        62.91%      <== Farthest below trendline
11 May 2019    $6,667.26       $6,901.48       103.51%      <== First point above trendline since December 2018
16 May 2019    $6,746.70       $8,052.61       119.36%


What does it all mean?  Maybe nothing, but the long term trendline has been a source of comfort to me, at least.  It says the pullback in November was not at all unexpected since we were still so far above the "expected" price.  It also says that since the over-correction, the trend has been "pulling" the price up.  Note back in 2015-2017 when we stuck closely to the average price increase per day, we bounced around +/- 20% of the trendline.  So I would not be surprised if we do the same thing again.  If so, I'll be happy...

(Note we are about 20% above, and I an seeing people calling for a pullback now, which would again be in line with bouncing within that range of the trend...)

Long term, the original numbers quoted below for future dates still holds.

I'll try to post a graphic later.

Cheers.