Re: A hidden markov model for sentiment prediction and price forecasting
But well, I just like that you said the market is bullish at this time. Though one thing you will have to know is that once a whale pulls out a heavy sum of money then you will start to see the price drop back again. This is all about the big investors, they move and the price follows them to that direction.
You do not need a whale to change the sentiment, also law makers and/or jurisdiction as well as technical problems can accomplish the same job.
So what you say is mainly true. However, no approach can model everything that is possible.