"If I'm right in the thesis, what do I get?"
"But on the other hand, if I am wrong, what is the maximum I lose?"
With these two bezels on your head, it's easy to size and risk your bet.
The risk is huge and so we must scale very well the amount we have to lose, not to fall into the fallacy of trying to solve life with a single shot.
i will say using all your money to invest in only BTC is a risky way and should not be done, anyway, i still think BTC is a good choice for long term investment, so i guess if it goes down too much, wont be a problem, we can still have hope to see BTC rise again in the future as long as we still hold our BTC.