This is a good analogy when it comes to big rallies in bitcoin yet we are experiencing a big movement in bitcoin price and it is on the verge of touching $9k and i did not expect a turn around in the market situation this early, your analysis is correct as the price usually moves higher after the halving and usually touches the all time high valuation within one year of halving but since this is a new market anything is possible and you cannot exactly predict how the price will move.