When I did manual HFT of Citi stock for a small hedge fund before C did their 10:1 reverse split and ruined the game for everyone, I used to keep a journal where I would chart my emotions on a simple 0-10 scale fear-euphoria, when I was euphoric, it was usually time to take profits, when I was afraid it was usually time to add to my trade, or stick.  I think that principal applies for bitcoin very much so.