Hey all, just want to let you know that I lurk this board frequently and have been super busy with other things and haven't been able to post or comment on anything really.
It seems like there is some agreement on how to interpret Socrates and I believe we can hammer out what works and what doesn't. The reversals seem pretty legit. Is it worth the $ just for the reversals? I feel like we're missing the critical TIME element which is supposed to make Socrates stand above the others. We're either interpreting the forecast arrays and GMW incorrectly, or they're just random noise that gets it right once in a blue moon. Like the rest of you I am suspicious of the claim that they monitor "global capital flows" unless what he really means is bond volume since it makes up the lion's share of transactions as he mentions frequently.
That being said, the May "turning point" basically came to fruition the moment Trump made the May 5 tweet. There is something to be said about the alignment of that since he could easily claim in a blog post that his computer picked the turning point and wouldn't have any clue about tariff increases so therefore Socrates is magic. However I do still see that as a strange coincidence (which we have all seen often) and the testable part is now July. Both were "turning points" that doesn't mean May was the low and July the high. It would very well be that May is when it "turns" down and July is when it "turns" back up. In that sense it doesn't necessarily mean an absolute low or high - only when the trend is due to change. Again the INTERPRETATION is what may be wrong and not Socrates, but I don't even have a sub *shame* I get the info vicariously through this forum.
There is also common agreement here that he likes to highlight when he's right and not when he's wrong, or missed a call like the massive rally from December-Apr. It's like you're always on the fence because sometimes you say to yourself "whoa he nailed it" and other times you say to yourself "he's exaggerating". Maybe it's a bit of both. That's fine for a PERSON. The same standard doesn't apply to a SERVICE with subscription $. Again he may be actually giving you Socrates but the missing piece here is how to interpret the TIME targets.
As far as my trades I saw his regular blog post with the downtrend lines for DB so I got Jan 2020 $5 puts @ $0.24. Now trading $0.31. Got a bunch won't reveal the number. My YINN $26 calls 10/2019 expiry that I bought in March cratered 90% and as far as I can see it's a total loss and I still have 4 months and 3 weeks to at least recover the losses before the Theta kills it for good.
Bike your strategy seems solid by the way. How can we talk outside this board and chat trades? (also I'm in agreement that Strike is the MAn himself =)