Do you actually use a lot of statistics and formulas in your strategy or is bankroll management and the amount you bet more important than being right? I've always thought that bookies use way too many useless statistics perhaps to confuse the average user.
Majority of fixtures traded in play run off a model which runs on an algorithm developed in house by an analytics team. The model takes the starting lines, for example total goals & handicap & then basically runs a simulation whilst taking messages from the scout live at the fixture, the in play trader often required very little input other than to nudge the price should it go out of line with others in the industry. Our pricing some of it would be in house & others we scrape from industry leaders / Exchanges, all prices have a margin, to give an example, if you flip a coin the odds of it being heads or tails are 1/1 / 2.0 even money, if a bookmaker wants to take an 8% margin so the overound goes to 108% they will offer odds on same outcomes of 5/6 / 1.83 meaning if you bet 20 on heads and I bet 20 on tails, does not matter the outcome the bookmaker makes a profit