Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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According to Grayscale, many investors are not aware of the bitcoin block reward halving.
As such, it still remains a key factor for the price and it is not completely priced in.
"We were surprised to learn that many of them were not even aware of this event." (Grayscale)
As such, it still remains a key factor for the price and it is not completely priced in.
"We were surprised to learn that many of them were not even aware of this event." (Grayscale)
https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung/status/1136949078879744000
thank you
Edit: I found the original quote
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Is the Halving Priced In?
The halving is close enough that its time to start talking about it more seriously, but far enough out in the future that its unclear whether its priced into the market efficiently. In fact, based on anecdotal conversations with market participants, we were surprised to learn that many of them were not even aware of this event. Moreover, according to Unchained Capital, less than 32% of the bitcoins in circulation have remained in the same wallet addresses since July 2016.3 This is consistent with our own determination that a large number of existing bitcoin holders are investors who have entered the market in the last three years. For many of them, this is uncharted territory and could very well be their first halving event.
While some investors in the digital asset ecosystem appear to have a short-term bias, strategies with a multi-year investment horizon and the discipline to hold strategic positions in Bitcoin through these events have historically generated outsized returns. For example, in the one-year periods following the first and second halvings, bitcoins price rose by roughly 81x and 3x, respectively.
https://grayscale.co/the-next-bitcoin-halving/The halving is close enough that its time to start talking about it more seriously, but far enough out in the future that its unclear whether its priced into the market efficiently. In fact, based on anecdotal conversations with market participants, we were surprised to learn that many of them were not even aware of this event. Moreover, according to Unchained Capital, less than 32% of the bitcoins in circulation have remained in the same wallet addresses since July 2016.3 This is consistent with our own determination that a large number of existing bitcoin holders are investors who have entered the market in the last three years. For many of them, this is uncharted territory and could very well be their first halving event.
While some investors in the digital asset ecosystem appear to have a short-term bias, strategies with a multi-year investment horizon and the discipline to hold strategic positions in Bitcoin through these events have historically generated outsized returns. For example, in the one-year periods following the first and second halvings, bitcoins price rose by roughly 81x and 3x, respectively.
Every time the halving comes near we get FUD with people saying its priced in.
So far post halving we have had a parabolic rise. I think we can safely say that no, the halving is never priced before it happens.
There are less coins being mined post halving therefore coins are more scarce. Its all about supply & demand, if you reduce the supply then demand increases which naturally makes the price go up.
This is indeed the most ridiculous FUD attempt I've ever seen! It made me laugh
But in case some n00bs could be mislead, here is what I think: The price is not determined by the investors, but by the daily traders. They sell, buy, short, long, etc. and always look for a daily profit. They are not interested what the price will be after 1 year. Otherwise, they would be called investors and won't do short/long positions. Now, when a big investor appears on an exchange (or rather OTC, but let's say that the OTC desk pulls bitcoins from all major exchanges), he may move the price up to 20% in a day. But - and this is very important - if the daily market can't sustain that price, it will fall immediately! So, again traders play the main role of the price forming. And as I said, one year for them looks like an eternity. To say that the halving is priced in, it would mean that the price reached the top and it will fall soon - that is the hidden FUD in this statement. It may be true only if in the last weeks before the halving, we are way beyond the current ATH - $40-50K at least. Then we could expect some pullback, but in several months the reduced supply would restore the balance. Then nobody will know what the real price should be - with reduced supply and million new investors and traders entering the exchanges it is difficult to make predictions. So what usually happens is that the price continues to follow its parabolic graph untill it can't be sustained and some bigger corection comes. The exact values nobody can predict now. What we see as doom and gloom charts is done by n00b shorters, who just entered the market and realized that they can post their shit charts in various forums to influence others. And to go against the bull trend with charts and explanations like these is as if a child is trying to move the ocean with its little bucket. It has the faith but not the resources obviously